If you read this lead paragraph from Tuesday's Globe and Mail, you'd think the tories had make a meteoric rise in the polls that guarantees them a majority during the next election:
OTTAWA — Canadians in overwhelming numbers say Stephen Harper is the most decisive federal leader with the clearest vision of where he wants to lead the country, according to a poll that suggests the Conservatives may now have the winning conditions needed for a spring election.
Wow! Call that election now, Steve!
Now let's take a look at the actual numbers, which have a +/- 3 percent margin of error:
Were an election to be held today, 34 per cent of voters would opt for the Conservatives, up three points from last month. The Liberals are at 29 per cent, down six points from the same period, while the New Democratic Party is down one point to 14 per cent. The main beneficiary appears to be the Green Party, which has the support of 12 per cent of voters, up from eight per cent.
The poll also asked about decisiveness but, let's face it, since the Liberals have a new leader it's pretty hard to get a full picture of just how decisive Stephane Dion would be. It's much easier to analyze Steve, who's actually been the PM for just over one year. I think it's also wise to note that "decisiveness" is not always an admirable quality. See "The Decider", George Bush.
The poll finds that 53 per cent of voters find Mr. Harper to be the most decisive of the four main party leaders, with 20 per cent opting for the NDP's Jack Layton.
Mr. Dion is the choice of 19 per cent, while Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe is picked by 29 per cent in Quebec.
While this disturbs me, "On the question of who has the best vision for the nation, 50 per cent pick Mr. Harper; 22 per cent Mr. Dion and 20 per cent Mr. Layton", only 36 percent believe that Steve would be the best PM. So, there is definitely a mixed message there. Apparently, they like his vision but don't think he's quite good enough to actually carry it out.
Riding into an election on those numbers, contrary to what pollster Allan Gregg seems to believe, would seem to indicate yet another minority government situation for the Conservatives and there are many fronts from which to attack their record to this point: income trust taxation, lack of child care funding, no efficient environmental plan, ignoring aboriginal and women's affairs, no plan for dealing with poverty and, as the Liberals have been pounding the tories with for over a week now, their ideological bent - especially when it comes to trying to control the judiciary through tory-friendly appointments.
Canadians need to be made aware of what the tories would actually do if they did have a majority. They're treading carefully now, but if they had majority control we'd see a government much further to the right than the Canadian people are on the whole. It's not about bringing to light a "hidden agenda" any more. These tories have given Canadians a lot of evidence of that ideological persuasion and strong hints about how they would govern this country if they had total power. Their agenda is restrictive, repressive and tramples on human rights. The opposition parties have their work cut out for them but, if they are able to craft strong messages, they have the opportunity to bring their numbers up as well. I wouldn't quite write them off at this point.
Note for new readers: I am not a member of any political party. My only interest is in advancing liberal principles.
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