Thursday, January 25, 2007

Is War With Iran Inevitable?

From the "who leaked this and why?" file, the Washington Post reports that the US military is under orders to kill any Iranian 'revolutionary guard/operative' it finds in Iraq.

As for why this merits a front page story, the answer seems to appear in the article itself:

"We were making no traction" with "catch and release," a senior counterterrorism official said in a recent interview, explaining that it had failed to halt Iranian activities in Iraq or worry the Tehran leadership. "Our goal is to change the dynamic with the Iranians, to change the way the Iranians perceive us and perceive themselves. They need to understand that they cannot be a party to endangering U.S. soldiers' lives and American interests, as they have before. That is going to end."

A senior intelligence officer was more wary of the ambitions of the strategy.

"This has little to do with Iraq. It's all about pushing Iran's buttons. It is purely political," the official said. The official expressed similar views about other new efforts aimed at Iran, suggesting that the United States is escalating toward an unnecessary conflict to shift attention away from Iraq and to blame Iran for the United States' increasing inability to stanch the violence there.

But some officials within the Bush administration say that targeting Iran's Revolutionary Guard Command, and specifically a Guard unit known as the Quds Force, should be as much a priority as fighting al-Qaeda in Iraq. The Quds Force is considered by Western intelligence to be directed by Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to support Iraqi militias, Hamas and Hezbollah.

In interviews, two senior administration officials separately compared the Tehran government to the Nazis and the Guard to the "SS." They also referred to Guard members as "terrorists." Such a formal designation could turn Iran's military into a target of what Bush calls a "war on terror," with its members potentially held as enemy combatants or in secret CIA detention.

"Nazis". "SS". That plays nicely to the theme that Iran supposedly wants to "wipe Israel off the map" and this article is a shot across the bow to get the Iranian president's attention. That's why it's made its way into the press now.

I'd also like to know how the Bush administration can justify killing these Iranians in Iraq considering the reported extent of their involvement there:

Three officials said that about 150 Iranian intelligence officers, plus members of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Command, are believed to be active inside Iraq at any given time. There is no evidence the Iranians have directly attacked U.S. troops in Iraq, intelligence officials said.

But, for three years, the Iranians have operated an embedding program there, offering operational training, intelligence and weaponry to several Shiite militias connected to the Iraqi government, to the insurgency and to the violence against Sunni factions. Gen. Michael V. Hayden, the director of the CIA, told the Senate recently that the amount of Iranian-supplied materiel used against U.S. troops in Iraq "has been quite striking."

That last claim was debunked by the LA Times earlier this week.

The accusations of Iranian meddling "illustrate what may be one of our greatest problems," said Anthony Cordesman, a former Defense Department official and military expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

"We are still making arguments from authority without detail and explanation. We're making them in an America and in a world where we really don't have anything like the credibility we've had in the past."

Nor should they.

And, as Scott Ritter warns, Bush may own the Iraq war but Democrats will own a war with Iran, if this situation escalates to that point. And, while congress is busy debating non-binding resolutions about the so-called troop "surge" in Iraq (which Bush and Cheney have already said they'll ignore) the real elephant in the room is Iran.

Democrats should seek immediate legislative injunctions to nullify the War Powers' authority granted to the President in September 2001 and October 2002 when it comes to Iran. Congress should pass a joint resolution requiring the President to fully consult with Congress about any national security threat that may be posed to the United States from Iran and demand that no military action be initiated by the United States against Iran without a full, constitutionally mandated declaration of war.


Related: New US strategy on Iran emerges from Davos
Iran calls for summit with Iraq, Syria
Attack on Iran would be 'catastrophic', IAEA says
Escalation of US Iran military planning part of six-year Administration push
The Coming War Against Iran

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