The Fragile State of the Lebanese Government

The Independent's Robert Fisk who is currently in Beirut examines the current state of the democratically elected Lebanese government as it relates to the news of the assassination of Pierre Gemayel and the possibility of civil war in the country.

Why did Gemayel die just hours after Syria announced the restoration of diplomatic relations with Iraq after a quarter of a century? Why has Nasrallah threatened street demonstrations in Beirut to bring down the government when Siniora's cabinet had just accepted the UN's tribunal to try Hariri's assassins?

And why did America's UN ambassador, John Bolton, weep crocodile tears for Lebanon's democracy - which he cared so little about when Israel smashed into Lebanon this summer - without mentioning Syria?

Syria, which is now a de facto US ally in the region, is not to be criticized. Geopolitics makes strange bedfellows and dangerous outcomes.

Today, Lebanon celebrates - it would be difficult to find a more lugubrious word on such an occasion - its 63rd year of independence from France, whose troops again patrol southern Lebanon. And Siniora's government still - just - exists. With Gemayel gone, however, it would only need the loss of two more cabinet ministers to destroy the legitimacy of his Shia-less cabinet and close down Lebanese democracy.

So what will the US do now?

Update: On Tuesday, the UN Security Council 'approved a tribunal to prosecute the suspected killers of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and 14 others'. Gemayel's death will be also added to the investigation.