New Canadian Poll Numbers

The Conservatives are slipping, neither they nor the Liberals are anywhere near possibly winning a majority government if an election was held today and Canadians have Rae and Ignatieff running neck and neck. Those are the significant results of a new EKOS poll dissected by the Toronto Star.

Rae, the former Ontario premier, is the choice of 26 per cent of the public, compared with 21 per cent for Ignatieff, according to EKOS Research Associates.

But Canadians, aware Ignatieff is ahead in the race for convention delegates, nonetheless say he'd have a better chance than Rae of winning the next federal election for the Liberals.

So, will delegates to the Liberal leadership convention go for electability even though Rae is the more popular choice of Canadians?

EKOS surveyed the popularity among Canadians of the four Liberal frontrunners based on the delegate selection vote two weeks ago. On the question of which candidate would make the best party leader, former Liberal MPP Gerard Kennedy and former federal cabinet minister Stéphane Dion each garnered 12 per cent. (A total of 28 per cent said "none of the above" or "don't know.")

That's a rather significant number of undecideds and leaves one wondering about who the alternative choice of those who voted for 'none of the above' would be, although it could just be an indicator of the number of respondents who don't really care about the leadership race results and/or the Liberal party.

As for party standings, Prime Minister Stephen Harper's chances of winning a majority in the next election appear to be worsening as Conservative strength erodes and the Liberals inch upward in popularity. The poll gives the Conservatives 36 per cent of decided voter support, down from 38.7 per cent in mid-September, while the Liberals hold 31.7 per cent, up from 28.8 per cent last month.

"The post-election `honeymoon' that lifted Tory support tantalizingly close to majority territory seems to be waning, and the Liberals are closing ground," said Graves.

The New Democrats are at 16.2 per cent nationally, trailed by the Bloc Québécois with 9.9 per cent and the Green Party at 6.2.

Statistically, the spread between the Cons and Liberals falls within the margin of error but it does indicate that despite the push by the Conservatives to work quickly on their so-called 5 priorities, they haven't managed to make a dent in the public's perception of their governance. And, as the article notes:

'Conservative popularity is being hurt by the Harper government's policies on Afghanistan and the environment, the pollster said. As a result, the federal Tories have slipped in Quebec while the Bloc and the Liberals are making gains there.

Once the Tories release their so-called 'approach' to the environmental challenges this week which many speculate will be rolled out with a whimper - not a bang - Tory numbers can be expected to drop even more. Leaks indicate that there's very little substance to the plan and that the realities of a Canadian Bush-style Clean Air Act may well invite court challenges, thus leaving the plan in limbo while the Tories will no doubt be pounding their chests stating that they offered a plan that environmentalists are holding up - and that could be one very ugly fight while Canadians will still have to suffer from the fallout of greenhouse gases.

Meanwhile, the situation in Afghanistan speaks for itself and the Canadian public needs to be reminded that Defence Minister O'Connor has admitted that the war will not be won militarily while Canadian soldiers continue to die.

Overall, Canadians are not pleased with the direction of this government:

EKOS found confidence in the federal government is slipping. The percentage of respondents who say the government is headed in the right direction dropped to 47 per cent from 50 per cent last month, while those who say it is headed in the wrong direction rose to 45 per cent from 38 per cent.

The opposition parties will need to capitalize on that disappointment if they are to make any gains. The Tories, from the PM to his cabinet ministers (the 'potted plants' who are just set decorations for Harper, as one pundit noted because he doesn't let them speak) and their MPs are still acting like they are members of the opposition - busily blaming the past Liberal government for all of their woes - and that does not bode well for a party that is supposed to be governing based on their own agenda.

Canadians don't like political infighting and the combative nature of the Tories, who don't seem to be able to integrate the fact that they actually won the last election, is not helping their cause. They also keep touting their leader as being 'decisive'. The only problem with that is that his 'my way or the highway' decisions are not going over all that well (shades of Bush 'The Decider' in the US). The key to successfully governing in a minority government situation is the ability to compromise and that is one trait that these Conservatives sorely lack and could well be their downfall.

Just as challenging is the ability or lack thereof of the opposition parties to take advantage of the Tory weaknesses in a collaborative fashion in order to ensure that they will be defeated in the next election. With each party fighting hard to claim the mantle, there must be time for strategizing collectively to bring down this government or we'll be stuck, yet again, with another Conservative minority the next time around. If only we had politicians who would stand for what's best for Canada instead of what's best for themselves or their political party. Democracy - what a concept.

Update: 4pm ET CNN reports that the 2 NATO soldiers killed in Afghanistan today were Canadian. I can't find independent confirmation of that yet.

Update: Via CP, it's been confirmed that 2 more Canadian soldiers have died and 2 were wounded on Saturday.