The White House contends that the document's widely reported conclusion -- that the Iraq war has increased the threat from terrorism -- represents only "a fraction" of the judgments made in the document. The report, completed in April, reflects the consensus view of 16 government intelligence services.
Bush charged at the news conference that political opponents leaked select parts of the National Intelligence Estimate to media organizations last weekend "to create confusion in the minds of the American people" in the weeks before the Nov. 7 mid-term elections.
"Somebody has taken it upon themselves to leak classified information for political purposes," Bush said. "I think it's a bad habit for our government to declassify every time there is a leak."
So, what did he do? He then rushed to declassify the key judgments (.pdf file) because Bush doesn't like confused Americans - he wants them on all the same page - his page. The problem is that this declassified document supports what the press reported: that Iraq has become terrorism central.
Here are some highlights:
• Although we cannot measure the extent of the spread with precision, a large body of all-source reporting indicates that activists identifying themselves as jihadists, although a small percentage of Muslims, are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion.
• If this trend continues, threats to US interests at home and abroad will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide.
[...]
We assess that the global jihadist movement is decentralized, lacks a coherent global strategy, and is becoming more diffuse. New jihadist networks and cells, with anti-American agendas, are increasingly likely to emerge. The confluence of shared purpose and dispersed actors will make it harder to find and undermine jihadist groups.
• We assess that the operational threat from self-radicalized cells will grow in importance to US counterterrorism efforts, particularly abroad but also in the Homeland.
[...]
We assess that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.
• The Iraq conflict has become the 'cause celebre' for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement. Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.
We assess that the underlying factors fueling the spread of the movement outweigh its vulnerabilities and are likely to do so for the duration of the timeframe of this Estimate.
• Four underlying factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement: (1)
Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western
domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness; (2) the Iraq 'jihad;' (3) the slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, and
political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and (4) pervasive anti-US sentiment among most Muslims - all of which jihadists exploit.
[...]
• The increased role of Iraqis in managing the operations of al-Qaida in Iraq might lead veteran foreign jihadists to focus their efforts on external operations.
Other affiliated Sunni extremist organizations, such as Jemaah Islamiya, Ansar al- Sunnah, and several North African groups, unless countered, are likely to expand their reach and become more capable of multiple and/or mass-casualty attacks outside their traditional areas of operation.
• We assess that such groups pose less of a danger to the Homeland than does al- Qaida but will pose varying degrees of threat to our allies and to US interests abroad. The focus of their attacks is likely to ebb and flow between local regime targets and regional or global ones.
I wonder how right-wing bloggers, who have a continual meltdown over leaks of classified intel, will feel about their president making public the US intelligence community's judgments about the current terrorism situation. Will they call Bush a terrorist appeaser? A traitor? Will they ask Bush why he hates America? Of course not. They'll spin this for all they're worth and will twist it to go after the press again, just like they always do, while completely ignoring the fact that Bush just proved his critics right by releasing this information.
Oh - and CNN is now reporting that 'intelligence officials' have told them that they've noticed increased activity lately in the mountains of Pakistan which 'may' indicate that medical supplies were being sent in to help bin Laden. Coincidence? You decide. And, if they had actionable intel, why didn't they go after him? This tidbit comes on the same day that the New York Post reported on an interview with Condi who tried to convince the Rupert Murdoch owned paper's readers that Bill Clinton was just wrong when he said the Bush administration did nothing about bin Laden pre-9/11.
Just how much lying are we expected to put up with in one day?
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