Sunday, February 11, 2007

On Iran: Would you buy used intel from these guys?

The so-called dossier on Iran has been released to reporters - on a Sunday - by anonymous officials.

The officials said they would speak only on the condition of anonymity so the trio's explosives expert and analyst, who would normally not speak to reporters, could provide more information. The analyst's exact job description was not revealed to reporters. Reporters' cell phones were taken before the briefing, and the officials did not allow reporters to record or videotape the proceedings.

How bizarre and suspicious is that?

On two tables in a briefing room in Baghdad, military officials laid out tubular rocket propelled grenades, football-shaped mortars, a cylindrical EFP, and about 40 tail fins of exploded mortars, which they say are manufactured in Iran -- just a "smattering" of the examples they have found in Iraq, said the defense analyst.

I'm having flashbacks...




And then there were Saddam's real "WMDs"...


The Iranians tend to use Iraqi smugglers along three main entrance routes into Iraq, the analyst said. "The smoking gun of an Iranian standing over an American with a gun, it's never going to happen," he said. "It's plausible deniability, I mean, they invented it."

If anyone invented plausible deniability, it was the neocons.

Those anonymous officials who made that presentation didn't offer any proof that the Iranian government was involved in the supposed shipment of weapons to Iraq and if Buscho intends to invade and or bomb Iranian facilities, that is the smoking gun they'll need. As it stands now, it seems they have no evidence of who is behind these supplies from Iran.

The fact that they released this display on a weekend without the presence of identifiable Pentagon officials ought to send out warning flags all over the place. Gates has said the past couple of weeks that they delayed their so-called dossier to make sure they got it right in order to avoid a replay of the Powell embarassment. If this is all they have, they've failed.

Update CNN's Michael Ware just reported that one indicator that supposedly links Iran to the EFPs in Iraq is that are stamped "81 mm". This is also posted on CNN's site:

Also, the U.S. military says 81 mm mortar shells used in deadly attacks in Iraq can also be directly traced to Iran.

Yet, when a large cache of such mortars were recently found in Iraq, the military said they were tied to al Qaeda - not Iran:

YUSUFIYAH — Iraqi Army and Multi-National Division – Baghdad Soldiers uncovered more than 1,100 81mm high-explosive mortar rounds at a cache near the main highway, Route Tampa, leading into the Iraqi capital Saturday.
[...]
“These mortars rounds are in the configuration to use as improvised explosive devises,” said Lt. Col. Mark Suich, the 1-89th’s commander and native of Redding, Pa. “The mortar rounds in this state cannot be used for indirect fire; they are fabricated and stored to be used against the coalition and sectarian enemies as IEDs.”

Suich said the seizure of so many munitions can only hurt terrorist operations.

“We put a significant reduction in the enemy’s ability to emplace IEDs in this area today,” Suich said. “We are pretty sure that these are affiliated with al Qaeda in Iraq.”

The area around Yusufiyah has long been identified as an al-Qaeda and former regime safe haven where attacks against Baghdad and Coalition and Iraqi security forces originated.

And we all know that Iran definitely wouldn't be supplying al Qaeda with weapons of any sort.

So, who's telling the truth here?

Update: Patrick Cockburn in Monday's Independent:

The allegations by senior but unnamed US officials in Baghdad and Washington are bizarre. The US has been fighting a Sunni insurgency in Iraq since 2003 that is deeply hostile to Iran.

Nice to know that my perceptions are confirmed.

Update: General Pace Refutes the So-called Iran Dossier Evidence

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